What will the Weather bring to this year’s King Island Race?
I am not sure why the Sydney-siders have been lending us their weather for the last few weeks but it makes it harder to predict what is going to happen. The reason we are having Sydney weather is that the center of the high pressure belt has moved well south of Tasmania, which is unusual for this time of the year.
In looking at the weather maps you can see from the 08:00 weather map to the 11:00 weather map the system is moving quickly so it should bring wind. All models are now in agreement that southerlies will prevail on the course for the duration of the event. The big issue for the fleet is in the early part of the race as the wind will be light and variable so it could be a struggle to get away from the heads.
Looking at the Predict wind model the Canadian and the American models are in agreement so I would have a reasonable level of confidence with a finishing time of sunset for a Beneteau First 40. The really hard tactical decision for the fleet is East or West of the Rhumbline in the early light wind stages of the race. So Tacticians should be watching the weather like a hawk today as that early decision is going to determine whether it’s Chocolates or boiled lollies.
Happy and safe sailing