ORCV Melbourne to Port Fairy
Warmer? Yes. Wetter? No.
Do you remember, Warming?
Then there was a thing called, Widespread?
A good friend, Andrew Roberts, read them and got to thinking. Being an Environmental Scientist, he then applied some of his skills an knowledge to the debate.
This is Andrew, with Caitlin Poulton, in the van at Apollo Bay.
He said to me, "Saw your 'Warming' post in the ORCV news about the benign Bass Strait weather for races. I've been doing a study on a site on Flinders Island over the last couple of years, which has involved some climate data analysis and thought some tech graphs and data might be of interest, see attached. The dataset is from the BoM Flinders Island Airport weather station, representing that part of Eastern Bass Strait. In our study, we had to look at climate data from the 1950's-2000's, including wind, temperature and rainfall:"
Temperatures - Mean minimums and mean maximums for two 25 year blocks, 1957-1982 and 1983-2008. "Mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures have slightly increased being consistently higher in the period 1983-2008 compared to 1957-1982."
Rainfall - average rainfall for two 25 yr blocks, 1957-1982, and 1983-2008. Average Rainfall is generally lower in the period 1983-2008 compared to 1957-1982. The higher temperatures and lower average rainfall shown in the dataset is consistent with modelled climate change predictions for SE Australia.
Winds - Mean Average wind speeds for 9am (green graph lines) and 3pm (blue graph lines) over 20-30 year blocks between 1962-2010. "The data shows average 9am and 3pm windspeeds between 1962-1990 that are actually lower than the average windspeeds recorded between 1981-2010 by around 5-6%. This is not consistent with anecdotes of a softer Bass Strait, maybe Huey has just gone soft around race time (although there are differences between October and January), or this is peculiar to East Bass Strait only, or the data range is too coarse although they do cover a fair range of the recent offshore racing periods." Ed. Yep. Huey hates us currently...
Andrew then added, "I am sitting here at Jan Juc, writing this to you and at the moment we have a howling SW gale outside and about a 4m storm swell running - it is classic Bass Strait tonight!!!" (March 24, 2011)
We have not seen Andy since Xmas, when he was on Tilting at Windmills, as he's got a baby due soon. He has managed to indulge his other passion, surfing, a bit of late, Getting some good waves though, so managing to stay in the soup, one way or the other. "Interestingly, an article appeared in The Age on March 25 about research that has found a significant increase in ocean winds and waves since 1985", Andy added the next day. You can go HERE to read it or a small snipet appears below.
Bridie Smith reports on an Australian study that has found the wind is blowing harder and the waves are higher across the globe. Published in the journal Science today, the research — the most comprehensive of its kind — used satellite data collected from 1985 to 2008.
The study was compiled by Professor Babanin, colleague Stefan Zieger and Australian National University Vice-Chancellor, Ian Young. The trio established that between 1985 and 2008, global increases in wave height were most significant for extreme waves, which increased by an average of 7 per cent over the last 20 years. In equatorial regions the rise was 0.25 per cent a year, while in higher latitudes the rise was up to 1 per cent a year.
Professor Babanin said, "Temperature changes the global patterns of the pressure, pressure defines the winds, winds define the waves. It's all connected."
So there you have it. It's windier of late - just not for us.... Many thanks to Andy for all his efforts to prepare this material for us.
PS. There are a few Sea Biscuits still available for trial - read about them HERE and then call the office.
© John Curnow, ORCV Media
Please contact me for re-issue rights.
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This is one hell of a Bring the shore crew - they'll love |
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