Tactical Race as King Island ‘Splits’ Melbourne to Hobart Race Fleet

Lord Jiminy leads fleet down Tasmanian West Coast

As the sun set on the first day of racing, tacticians onboard Melbourne Hobart yachts began making defining race decisions. The critical question for all tacticians was which way to sail past Bass Strait King Island, do we sail the traditional course east of King Island, or West to find favourable winds?

Sailing west of King Island has rarely been a race-winning course the past 49 Melbourne to Hobart races. This year’s weather has made it an option with most of the fleet deciding on the westerly course. Blue Water Tacks has chosen the most westerly course, searching for increased wind further west in Bass Strait

Lord Jiminy takes the lead as the fleet come around the bottom of King Island Photo Credit Steb Fisher

Currently leading the fleet is Lord Jiminy with Alex-Team Macadie and Tevake ll close behind with Alien currently leading in all three handicap divisions and sailed the traditional course, east of King Island,

As always, the Melbourne to Hobart ‘Westcoaster’ yacht race, is a race with many stages.  Sailing across Bass Strait past King Island is the first stage with West Coats of Tasmania second.

Track the fleet at https://race.bluewatertracks.com/2021-melbourne-to-hobart-westcoaster

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A leap of faith or a question of belief

Based on the predictions for the start of the Melbourne Tasmania races tomorrow, it is either a leap of faith for the Westcoasters or a question of belief for those going to Devonport.

PredictWind.com routings for the Westcoaster show a preferred course outside King Island for all weather models. In the past this has been disastrous for all who attempted it. It will be interesting to see if any of the fleet take the ‘Leap of Faith’ required and go to the West of King Island. Previous experience has seen competitors try this unusual strategy but never with any success. However never have we seen the modelling look so clear on the Western route.

The picture is a lot less clear for the Devonport race. Here the routes for each of the different models shows a completely different course to Devonport. Which one navigators choose to bet on will depend on which model they believe is more accurate, making this decision a question of belief.

Tomorrow’s weather briefing for all competitors will not just be compulsory but essential listening.

Big Swell for Start for the Tassie Bound Melbourne Fleet 

Make or break decision to be made for Hobart fleet 

The combined Melbourne to Hobart and Melbourne to Devonport fleets had a very civilized start time of 14:30 today in the vicinity of Portsea Pier, allowing for excellent spectator viewing.

With 20 knots of offshore breeze and a good length start line the fleet had a clean reaching start carving away to the first mark of the course at Shortland Bluff.  Grant Dunoon’s Moody 54, Blue Water Tracks was closely followed by Vagabond and Alex -Team Macadie. 

A fast start for the Hobart and Devonport crews Photo Michael Currie

One of the pre-race favourites, Lord Jiminy skippered by Guillaume Leroux had a delayed start.  The Class 40 that took Line Honours in the 2019 Westcoaster crossed the line 33 minutes after the fleet.  A time difference that could cost multiple places at the finish.

Lord Jiminy making up ground Photo Steb FIsher

First through The Heads of Port Phillip in challenging 2 – 3 metre swell was hotly contested with Alex-Team Macadie nosing just ahead of Tevake ll.

The Melbourne to Devonport fleet will be hoping to make ground before they hit the predicted weather ‘hole’ in the middle of the course.  The entire fleet is currently tracking well to the west of the rhumbline, Gusto Solo sailed double handed by Brian Pattinson and his son Tristan are leading the fleet in his new Don Jones 42 with Nigel Cunliffe’s Scaramouche slightly further west.  Presumably Cunliffe’s tactic is to attempt to maximise his wind and set the best line for his tack back later in the race.

The Melbourne to Hobart fleet has a weather dilemma that has rarely been seen in this Westcoaster race.  Current the modelling suggests that the fastest course to Hobart is to go West of King Island.  This track is well away from the direct rhumbline and adds approximately 25 nautical miles to the course.  Tacticians will have to make some race defining decisions around six or seven tonight.  

Currently Tevake ll and skipper Paul Nielson are closest to the rhumbline followed by Audere.  While Macadie on his double handed Alex are tracking to the west and enjoying a good boat speed of close to nine knots.  Vagabond, Blue Water Tracks and the Sydney 38 Faster Forward have all chosen to point this way as well.  Late starter Lord Jiminy are making excellent boat speed and have also manoeuvred to this more westerly position.

While tracking to the west of King Island maybe risky, this year’s unusual weather conditions may be the year to try.

Race director Jeremy Walton said tonight, “We are very happy to have had a clean start and are intrigued to see the tactics, particularly in the Westcoaster play out over the next eight hours.  On current forecast we expect to see the Devonport fleet somewhere near the finish line by midday tomorrow.”

Follow the fleet on the tracker:

Hobart Fleet https://race.bluewatertracks.com/2021-melbourne-to-hobart-westcoaster

Devonport Fleet https://race.bluewatertracks.com/2021-melbourne-to-devonport

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