ORCV Melbourne to King Island

The Promise.

For the last 10 days or so, there have been some excited Skippers and keen Naviguessers, as the classic downhill race, with up to 19 knots from the Nor'east, was going to deliver the fleet to the island in the middle of Bass Strait with pace and dare I say it, gusto (argh, argh, argh). The express versions up the front were looking like breaking records and the rest would be in before the sun set on Saturday. That adventure seems to have ended, with the leaders now due well after their 1100hrs target. 1400 hrs is what the routing software from our pals at PredictWind have to say. Our other friends from Tidetech also indicate the currents and tides are there for all to deal with, especially at the top of King Island.

So, the promise of a dash for the record seems to have evaporated. The Brass have chimed in with "Crew in this year’s King Island race will be working hard to gain each mile towards King Island. The positives; sea sickness and water on the deck and cold are not going to be a problem. The negative; you will get tantalisingly close to King Island when the wind dies out. So the crews that are set for the long haul will come home with the handicap honours."

"If we look at the four day forecast map, we will see that we will have a weak cold front and a trough passing through the race course on Saturday. The effect of the trough will be that the boats in the right position on the race course will win. So rhumbline sailing is to be avoided at all costs! You will be lucky if the wind exceeds 15 knots for the race. If you look at the two PredictWind models, you will see that for the Beneteau First 40 and the Farr 52, both the GFC and the CMC computer models are predicting the same route, which is to go well East of the rhumbline, so that you don’t end up running downwind in no wind. Not fast at all", the Brass added.

The models below are for a Beneteau First 40...

The models below are for a 52footer...

Above is start time and below is 1000hrs on Saturday.

This is 1600hrs - check the area bounded by the red band - and below is 0100hrs on Sunday morning.

"Despite it all looking the same, it wont that way with trough moving around, so you will have play it as you see itI have added lots of other information that all says the same thing it won’t be the same and your strategy will have to change as the race develops. So good luck and happy sailing. Looking at the tides provided by Tidetech, we note that these will will not help the attempt at the record, as the tide will be against them on Saturday afternoon", was the Brass' final point.

Above is the start time flows from our friends at Tidetech and below is 0600hrs Saturday.

Above is 1000hrs and below is 1400hrs.

One crew well into planning mode to deal with it all are our newbies - Arch Rival, the old Rouseabout. "From a race standpoint, I imagine the big boats are rubbing their hands together and measuring up a new trophy cabinet. They may well be in before the breeze shuts down. In the same sense - it's a classic rich get richer scenario - If we can be well up the fleet in the light running conditions, we may well get a result in the 38 - 40 footer division. Can you all have a good long hard look at your gear, cull anything that's not absolutely essential:

© John Curnow, ORCV Media

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	Councillor Island on the left, as seen from the plane... Remember the currents!!!!