Searching for a Cyclone - the work behind the scenes of the Melbourne Osaka Race

The ORCV Race Management Team for the 2018 Melbourne to Osaka Double-Handed Yacht Race includes 6 Duty Race Directors and 2 Fleet Weather Officers - Robin Hewitt & Andrew Roberts.   Robin and Andrew are on a Daily Roster and maintain a constant watch on weather conditions for the fleet. They prepare detailed analysis of weather outlook at least twice daily (more often if situation dictates) to Duty Race Directors for review. If forecast conditions exceed pre-defined wind speed and sea state thresholds, Duty Race Directors liaise with Fleet Weather Offices then escalation of Weather Event Warnings to the fleet via SMS (sat phone), Email (sat phone) or HF marine radio during the twice daily mandatory position report communications with the fleet (or more often as required).  The fleet also source thier own weather forecast information via various methods. 

Fleet Weather Officers and Duty Race Directors have been very busy during this race with 3 of 4 starts delayed and several weather events, including Tropical Cyclone Iris which resulted is racing being suspended. The Fleet Weather Officers commenced tracking a deepening Tropical Low which was initially upgraded/classified as Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Iris by the Fiji Meteorological Service, then subsequently downgraded, then upgraded again by Australian Bureau of Meteorology to a Category 3 Cyclone, a few weeks later.

To follow is a report from Robin Hewitt and some of the extensive research on Tropical Cyclone activity, which was conducted long before this year's race and some detailed analysis on Tropical Cyclone Iris that led to the suspension of racing.

Searching for a Cyclone, by Fleet Weather Officer Robin Hewitt

There have been instances of tropical revolving storms occurring in the history of the Melbourne to Osaka Race, in each case as typhoons in the Northern Hemisphere. First race of 1987 saw some yachts anchoring in shelter for up to four days, while the 1991 race had super typhoon Walt formed near Guam, necessitating some course selection. In the 2003 race some yachts were obliged to shelter in Ulul lagoon (Onoun Island, Southwest corner of the Namonuito Atoll, Federated States of Micronesia) as a typhoon neared.

In the race management team for the 2018 event, Robin Hewitt and Andrew Roberts have shared the task of providing warnings of extreme events. What are the possibilities? Tropical Revolving storms in the area of interest are known as Cyclones in the southern hemisphere and Typhoons in the northern hemisphere. In addition, the spring season in Japan is subject to the storms sweeping in from icy Siberian land masses. The polar jets can intensify these Lows to bring severe weather to competitors as they near Japan. Similarly, cold fronts and deep Lows can escape from Antarctica but in March are unusual, more likely is a cyclone over northern WA crossing land and re-appearing near Perth before joining a front thence heading towards or below Tasmania.

So how to prepare to manage a race through the tropics? Methodology is standard-collect data-analyse-prepare hypothesis. First of all, the race is timed for the least climatic possibility of tropical revolving storms. The period of April and either side has the lowest incidence historically. So firstly a table of occurrences was prepared for the times of interest. Then they are compared to the theoretical model for possible variations. Formation does not occur between 5ᴼN & 5ᴼS and mostly do not form between 10ᴼN & 10ᴼS.

This is because they need the Coriolis effect to create spin. They require a vertically ascending motion involving moisture as high humidity over water of about 27ᴼC and utilize latent heat release as cooling water vapor turns to liquid and as the still ascending water turns to ice. If winds aloft can interrupt the vertical ascension then they cease development. They are however, steered by gradient winds and the easterlies prevalent in the equatorial region, generally cause them to initially move west and curve towards the poles until reaching more westerly gradient winds. Most weather agencies use a colour coding system of classification known as the Saffir-Simpson scale shown here.

Saffir–Simpson scale
Category	Wind speeds
Five	≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots, ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h
Four	58–70 m/s, 113–136 knots, 130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h
Three	50–58 m/s, 96–112 knots, 111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h
Two	43–49 m/s, 83–95 knots, 96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h
One	33–42 m/s, 64–82 knots, 74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h

 

Related classifications
Tropical Storm (TS)	18–32 m/s, 34–63 knots, 39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h
Tropical Depression (TD)	≤17 m/s, ≤33 knots, ≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h

 

TD

TS

1

2

3

4

5

What is evident from studying historical events is that if they touch land and then go offshore again, they rapidly intensify. The previous track examples illustrate the theoretical model. Following are some variants which illustrate the erratic possibilities.

 

Historial Tropical Cyclones / Typhoons

April	May	June
1966: Hester 1967: Violet 1981: Gerald, Holly 1986: TD, Ken 1990: Lewis 1991: Vanessa 1995: Chuck 1996: Ann, 03W 1997: Isa, Jimmy 1999: Jacob, Kate, Leo 2001: Barok 2002: 04W 2003: Kujira 2004: Sudai 2005: Sonca 2007: Kong-Rey 2008: Neoguri 2009: Crising, Kujiva, TD 2010: TD 2011: 01W, Amang 2012: Pakhar, TD, TD 2014: Peipah, TD, Maysak 2015: Haishen 2017: Crisng	1966: Bising, Irma, Judy 1967: Wida 1986: TD, Lola Mac 1990: Marian, TD, TD, TD 1991: Walt 1995: TD, TD, TD 1996: Bart, Cam 1997: Kelly, Levi, Marie 1998: TD 1999: Maggie, TD 2000: Damey, Longwang, TD, Konsing, 04W 2001: TD, Cimaron 2002: Hagbs, TD, Dagui Baticot, TD, Charsom, Linfo 2003: Nangka 2004: Nida, 05W, Omas 2005: Crising, Nesat 2006: Chanchu 2007: Yuta 2008: Rammasan, Matmo, Halong, Nakri, TD 2009: Chan-han 2011: Aere, Songda, TD 2012: Sanvu, Mawar 2014: Tapah 2015: Noul, Dolphin 2016: 01W 2017: Muifa, TD	1966: Kit 1967: Anta, Bille 1981: Ike, TD, June, TD, Kelly, Lynn 1986: TD, Nancy, TD, Owen 1990: 04W, Nathan, Otelia, Percy, TD 1991: Yunga, TD, TD 1995: Deanna, Eli, TD, TD 1996: TD 1997: Nestor, Opal, Peter, TDx3 1999: Gening 2000: TD, Kirogi 2001: Dami, Chebi, Durian, Utor, 2002: TD Naguri 2003: Sanglefor 2004: Conson, Chanthu,Daninu, Mindulle, TingTing 2005: Nesat 2006: Jelawat, Ewinjar 2008: TD, Fengshen 2009: Linfa, Nangka 2011: Sarka, TD, Haima, Meari 2012: Guchol,Talin 2013: Yagi, TD, Leepi, Betinca, Rumbia 2014: Mitag, Hagbis 2015: Kajira 2016: TD, Ambo 2017: Soudefor

Highlight-Typhoons/Tropical Cyclones not applicable the Melbourne to Osaka race area

 

So how can we look for possible concerns? Lows on the Monsoonal Trough are one prospect. The Monsoonal Trough is an area of low pressure to the north of Australia. Hot air rising is low pressure and this can have a similar effect to the trades as air rushes in to replace the rising hot air, only this time it is the northern cooler air from Indonesia and Asia-Monsoon. Also on the front of the Monsoonal air rush with thunderstorms and rain are the conditions suitable for a Low to become something else.  Ditto along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or Doldrums.

And then there are known hotspots. Eg Guam, Koror, Palau and from 5-10ᴼS or N. Procedure is to use the wonderful 7 or 10 day forecasts that are now available from several organisations. Perhaps best known are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) prediction model from Europe, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model from the USA’s NOAA, and the BoM Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) model locally. These models are mathematical predictions based on fluid dynamics using complex algorithms and observation data in giant computers. The Australian local forecasters have sub-routines and experience to ‘adjust’ model outcomes. Next we move ahead in time to see what the predictions are for pressure systems. If a Low continues to deepen in the models, it is a surefire warning to watch closely and see if the pressure predictions are holding true. Because the atmospheric tide in the tropics can vary pressure by 3-5 millibar when closer to the equator, it is necessary to check each day’s prediction at the same times. The atmospheric tides are low at 4am and 4pm, high at 10am and 10pm. There are rules of thumb for rate of pressure drop/rise and wind strengths. The weather bureaus generally issue warnings  much closer to certainty and share predictions for worldwide publishing. Some sites publish worldwide warning and illustration products as a collective facility. Relatively slow vessels need more warning.

Also with the advent of satellite technology, there are patterns that can give rise for further investigation or for keeping an eye on. A group of thunderstorms becomes organised in a tropical Low and ripe for further development. Satellites use both visible and infrared satellite imagery to track the motion and cloud patterns of tropical revolving storms and infrared to monitor cloud-top temperatures-thus how high they reach (strength). The weather bureaus have trained observers, and of course, supercomputers to analyse data.

Armed with areas of interest, it then becomes a matter of observing as many prediction models as possible along with actuals which brings the next problem. Each of the prediction modelling programs have a different mathematical basis and the further ahead one looks, the greater the differences are. One model may show, for example, a cyclone developing five days into the future while another model shows nothing unusual. As time goes on all the models will come together to match the actual or close future. If all models agree for a specific time, one has a high degree of confidence, but if they do not???? This requires a degree of judgement and perhaps if using a routing function, one should allow for contingency plans to be able to modify the route. The three pictures (above and left) are all for the same date and time from 3 different forecast models: 1. ECMWF, 2. GFS, 3. ACCESS.

 

Now let us look at an actual situation. The remnants of Cyclone Iris is wandering around the vicinity of the M2O route to the ‘gate’ between Bouganville and New Ireland, behaving erratically and not conforming to any rules. The average route is N along longitude 155ᴼE showing areas of 30-40 knots plus gusts of 40%?

Gale strength but probably choose downwind. On this date the early starters Morning Star, The Edge and Bartolome are spread from Roughly 24ᴼS to well off Cairns. The main start are spread out between Gabo and off Canberra moving steadily north using inshore and offshore strategies. This BoM map gives some options but further prognosis shows the Low driftingto NW along the Qld coast. Add a further concern - will the Low of 1005 deepen and form to cut off escape further to the east of remnants of Iris in it’s current form as a Tropical Low? Shown in the gradient wind analysis. Note the analysis is always given in UTC time.

 

Issued at 5:08 am EST on Sunday 1 April 2018 for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 April 2018. At 5:00am EST Sunday, ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris was located near Latitude 15.1 degrees South, Longitude 149.5 degrees East, about 450 km East-Northeast of Cairns. The Low is currently moving Northwest at about 5 km/h. The system is likely to remain slow moving for much of today before adopting a more Southwesterly track and moving closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast on Monday and Tuesday.

The system is expected to remain a subtropical Low until Tuesday, when the system moves into a more favourable environment and the chance of further development increases to moderate. 

The satellite picture am on 1st April shows tropical Low Iris and further east is the Low which eventually develops into TC Josie. If TC Josie follows the rules it will move west towards the coast and the advancing main fleet will be sandwiched. Iris is erratic and could go anywhere, if it nears or crosses the coast it will either dissipate inland or alternatively reform offshore and strengthen-will it? Nexba and Allegro are now near Brisbane while Morning Star, The Edge and Bartolome are through and moving into the ‘No TC’ latitudes.

On the morning of 2/4/18, Nexba and Allegro are E of 156ᴼ and of latitudes of approx. 25ᴼS off from Fraser Island moving Northwards in excess of 8 kts. By evening warning is given Iris has reformed as a cat 1 cyclone and a projected track issued. Models are not agreeing so the field is wide open.

Below are the comparisons taken with model forecasts side by side.  Note on the GFS (right) map a new Low is forming between the two systems.

 

BoM TC Iris projected track superimposed on a the BlueWaterTracks yacht tracker:

A forward position estimate for most of the fleet shows they could not avoid problem areas and further TC Iris projected track advice (pictured below) forecasts development to Category 3 possible. Check conditions on the Australian Cyclone chart for Category 2 & 3.  Unlike the recent Volvo race, which had a wide area of ocean to play in, we have a sandwich due to location of the Great Barrier Reef, TC Iris and TC Josie which would have significantly limited the options for the fleet.  All in an area of strong currents.

 

 

 

Mon 2/04/2018 4:30 PM

Notice to Competitors No. 5

Safety Warning

Due to significant concerns about the forecast track and potential strength of the reformed cyclone Iris off the coast of Townsville, we require that you make appropriate plans to ensure your safety.

In accordance with SI 3.3 we instruct that you choose one of the following options Option 1 Upon reaching latitude 22S remain east of longitude 155E until the race committee advises otherwise Option 2.

Irrespective of your longitude, do not sail further north than Latitude 23S until the race committee advises otherwise.   Competitors should choose a position that suits them tactically (Latitude and Longitude) and record a GPS time (AEST) should they suspend racing, communicating that position and time to the Race Director.  Communication skeds must continue at all times.  You may choose an anchorage or a mainland marina at your discretion and should you require assistance to find a safe haven, please contact the Race Director.

In order to protect the integrity of the race, competitors may elect to replace any fuel used to travel to/from safe haven and any provisions used while racing is suspended, but must not take on any additional provisions or seek any external assistance.  Competitors must log any provisioning (incl quantities) and include this as part of their written post race declaration.

Our intention is to continue racing as long as it is safe to do so.  Competitors may need to suspend racing  after which time you will need to return to your recorded suspended position and record a GPS time (AEST) for recommending racing, again communicating that position and time to the Race Director.  Results of the race will be based on elapsed racing time.

We have not taken this decision lightly, but our clear priority is competitor safety.  Should you feel these instructions are injurious to your competitive status, redress remains an option.

Should you choose a mainland port, there may be some customs implications which we are looking into.

Can you please immediately acknowledge receipt of this Email.

Simon Dryden

Principal Race Director

 

Fears Tropical Cyclone Iris may intensify to category three overnight

3 April 2018 — 6:25am

Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to intensify into a category three by Wednesday as it continues to move along the Queensland coast.

Forecasters predicted the weather system would strengthen into the early hours of Wednesday morning, bringing destructive winds and heavy rain to parts of the state.

Example report using satellite imagery

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180339Z SSMIS 91GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).

GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 OURS IS MEDIUM.

 

TC Iris overlay on Google Earth:

The race continues. Our search has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere area known as NW Pacific.

The Incident Management Team protocols and training instituted in ORCV by Rik Head has again been proved invaluable in conducting races like this year’s M2O.

If you are interested in becoming more familiar with understanding the terminology, tools and concepts in this article, the ORCV weather courses delve much deeper on this material.

Robin Hewitt with thanks to Andrew Roberts and Neville Rose.

 

References:

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) http://www.bom.gov.au/
Blue Water Tracks https://race.bluewatertracks.com/2018-osaka-race
Fiji Meteorological Service http://www.met.gov.fj/
Joint Thyphoon Warning Center (JTWC) from United States Naval Observatory http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/jtwc.html
PredictWind https://www.predictwind.com/
Weather Zone http://www.weatherzone.com.au/
WikiPedia https://en.wikipedia.org
Windy https://www.windy.com

Why Sail 2 Handed?

 

Ask this question in the bar and you will probably get a light hearted answers like “nobody steals my bunk”.   Get people to seriously think about it and there may well be a deeper set of reasons.

On a personal level it is challenging and exhilarating. In the bay its just the two of you, working together trying to do the work of many. Tacking, gybing, getting a kite up and down they need a serious amount of sailing skill, especially if you want to do well in a race. Off shore you ramp it up a notch as most of those activities you end up doing by yourself. Think about a typical 40 footer and mull over how you would tack by yourself, let alone gybe. Its quite an exercise. Waking up your co skipper sometimes isn’t an option as they need their sleep. Yes you have an autohelm, but ask most short handed sailors and they hand steer the majority of the time to get the best out of the boat, they are racing after all.

Exhilarating, you bet. Picture yourself at night, in a big following wind, surfing the yacht down some monster waves, by yourself !! You cant get it wrong, not for a moment.

Magique Winner of the 2017 Sovereign Series, skippered by Maurice Contessi and Martin Vaughan.

On a practical level it does solve some of the problems about getting enough crew and how to keep your distance in today's current environment, but be warned it can create problems with losing a crew if you regularly race fully crewed. Downstairs there isn’t all the usual personal gear kicking around and yes you do tend to have your own bunk. With only the two of you, chores need to get done however so you tend to do more with cooking, navigating, radio etc. Sleep, well there is an interesting challenge. Managing the boat alone in shifts is very tiring so its typically 2 or 3 hours on, rotating on and off watch for as long as it takes. Preparing and packing up from racing takes longer too when there are only the two of you. Did we mention parking the boat in a marina ?

So what do you need to do to go double handed racing ? Well you need a decent co skipper, there isn’t a concept of me skipper you crew. You both have to be able to do everything, and yes we mean everything. Bow, trimming, steering, nav, the lot. Your boat needs to be set up for it too. A couple of the mandatory items for two handed off shore are; a decent autohelm, mast track and cars if slab reefing plus led back reefing lines and ideally lazy jacks, hanked headsails or a roller furler, spinnakers in socks or on a furler, instruments and controls accessible from the helm. Finally practice, lots of it.

Why do we do it ? Lots of reasons, did we mention “nobody sees your mistakes” ?

 

 

"Rip" Tour of Port Phillip Heads

Do you want to escape the restriction of our vast Port Phillip Bay and venture outside to try out some ocean sailing in Bass Strait? For this you must first know how to safely enter and exit the bay through its very narrow opening -  affectionately called "the Rip".

Find out how to get out of the bay and into Bass Strait by attending our next “Rip Tour” on Sunday the 21st of October, 2018. Make sure you are part of this informative and hands-on training session. Register now to secure your place.

Every six hours – in line with the change of the tide - a huge volume of water rips in and out of the entrance creating unique and sometimes treacherous conditions.  This very narrow entrance is guarded by the long peninsular pincers of Point Lonsdale on the one side and Point Nepean on the other.  The “Rip” is only 1.5 nautical miles wide - of which only 0.6 of a nautical mile is clear of dangerous reefs and hence safe to navigate.

To encourage sailors to experience ocean sailing, the Ocean Racing Club of Victoria conducts a regular, practical on-water tour of the entrance to Port Phillip. Also suitable for all other enthusiasts and their families interested in discovering the safe ways of transiting the heads.

From the instruction you will learn the patterns of tidal flow in this area and how to transit safely through the "Rip" including the correct channel protocols. Identifying the transit leads, channel beacons and navigational aids.  Favorable wind and tidal conditions will be described - or observed depending on the day. The experienced instructors will also show you how to anticipate and therefore avoid dangerous situations. To assist you in future crossings you will receive a handy reference chart.

You will also have the opportunity to traverse the leads under Shortland Bluff depending on the tide and shipping traffic.  There may be the opportunity to venture seawards to view the effects of "The Rip" before returning to disembark at your nominated port.

Click here for more details including Registration.

Planning for a successful Hobart race

With Christmas racing done and dusted, the Geelong and Lincoln regattas behind us, many skippers and yachties thoughts are turning to the year ahead. Some choose a year off, focusing on bay racing. Others set their sights North, heading to Queensland for the various regattas, perhaps doing an ocean race on the way. Many others are focused on doing “a Hobart”.

For many that will be a Sydney to Hobart, for others a Melbourne to Hobart. They are both iconic races and offer different challenges. The Westcoaster has a long history and has the added bonus of two handed if people wish to try that. Some campaigns which lack experience and training involve a two year program with Devonport as the destination year one and Hobart year two. Whatever the plan, a successful campaign is a long term proposition.

Sure it is possible to buy a good boat and stack it with experienced crew and tick off getting there. But we are talking racing, basically doing your very best and finishing knowing you left nothing behind. Some people focus on a podium result, problem is if you don’t get one then people get disappointed. We found focusing on a realistic result and trying to beat that was a more enjoyable approach and any podium result was a bonus. For us it was knowing you sailed well together, had good tactics, made minimal mistakes and were proud of your achievements. For us it was the friendship and comradery, the lifetime bonds formed which were important. That first beer, always together as a crew, proudly wearing the team shirt, that was what it was all about.

Finding crew is tricky, realistically you need every job on the boat being able to be covered by two or more people, that includes navigation etc. Crew need to get along too, so the style of person must match the dynamics of the boat and skipper. Strong, fit, experienced, don’t get seasick, ideally with SSSC and other quals, sounds easy doesn’t it ? We noticed, to attract crew and keep them, you need a long term program for them to commit to. Good crew don’t like ad hoc programs, they tend to sign up to those with a long term program.

Typically for the year ahead, the program lists all the lead up races (ORCV ones of course), these are used to bond and train the crew as well as shake down the gear. A typical yearly program will kick off with the King Island, a relatively short ocean race with a great destination, which is handy to test for basic skills and seasickness. A sprint race to Apollo bay and an opportunity for a longer Port Fairy over Easter perhaps, they are all good testing grounds. Avoid the temptation to tough it out without watches, test them too by trying different ones. Test the 2^nd Watch lead, test the navigator/tactician and of course the trimmers, helm and bow.

By the time it gets to the Stanley race over cup weekend, you should have ideally had a few training days. Everyone should know the basics of a sail change, reefing, navigation and helming. Stanley should be a serious race, a trial run for the Christmas racing. Plus, the added advantage is getting all the compliance stuff like the safety audit out of the way.

Boats don’t just magically get to the start and the finish lines. Maintenance, preparation and deliveries become the shared responsibility. For those lucky enough they can be cheque booked, for most of us it is hard, time consuming work. The question to our crew wasn’t “can you help” but “which days will you help”. Many owners ask for a modest contribution to costs, not only does this help the owner but we noticed that crews felt more ownership of the campaign if they contribute. Don’t underestimate the power of a branded crew shirt, it builds pride and makes people feel part of a team.

And the race itself, well that bit is up to you. It’s a great feeling to cross the start line, and an even better one to cross the finish. Live the dream, if you want to do it we will help.

If you need advice or a hand just ask us at the ORCV.